Out with 2007 and in with 2008. From the looks of things at the office we’re still getting back into the swing of buying and seller. That is to say that there’s not a terrible amount of activity right now, but I’m optimistic about 2008. Take a look at this excerpt from From The Neal Spelce Austin Letter (www.AustinLetter.com) and let me know what you think. Job and population growth are the underlying drivers of the housing market so this is a must read!

For the 2008-2009 biennium, the Texas economy should outpace the US economy for the same reasons that it is outperforming the national economy today. Just what is it about Texas?

It’s not one thing, it’s a bunch. Economist Gary Preuss, in the Revenue Estimating Division with Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts Susan Combs, ticks off the list: “continued net migration into the state, a central Sunbelt location at the buckle of the nation’s burgeoning southern and western regions, an experienced workforce, a comparatively healthy housing market, a strategic geographic location for Latin American trade, an oil and gas industry serving as a buffer for high fuel prices, and a relatively low cost of doing business.”

The first item on his list – net migration – is quite impressive. The most recent USCensus Bureau’s annual estimate of state population changes covers the 12-months that ended 7/1/07. Texas gained 496,751 residents, more than any other state.

By the way, Preuss predicts that just over 60% of Texas‘ population growth in the 2008-2009 biennium will be driven by natural increase (births), while slightly less than 40% will be due to net migration. The rate of growth should step back from its 2006-2007 growth rate, which was unusually high due to the large number of migrants displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

Another Texas economist, Ray Perryman, looks ahead and says the Texas economy is moving forward, though the pace of expansion has slowed recently. “Even so,” he noted, “the economy of the Lone Star State appears strong enough to weather current problems and uncertainties.”

One of the reasons for Perryman’s optimism is the growth rate in Texans‘ personal income. He points out that Texas has performed better than the national average, “a pattern,” he said, “which is expected to continue.”