Austin Real Estate Blog

Increase in construction billing is a positive sign, but spending will lag a while longer.

The big factor is time-lag between billings and construction spending, which is between 9 and 12 months. A score below 50 indicates a decline in demand, and the current U.S. score is 43.1 for September, 2009. But it reflects a slight increase from the 41.7 from August.

However, new construction inquiries are up, showing a nice 59.1 percent increase. This could be showing that the government’s stimulus program is working. Or, it could be showing the stiff competition in the business is resulting in multiple submissions. The outlook depends upon the reality of this number’s creation. The optimistic eye will be hopeful, pointing at the stimulus program. It’s believed that some big stimulus projects will be beginning soon, helping to counter the big decline in private commercial construction.

It helps to look at one other factor: The rating for inquiries is the highest it has been in 2 years. That is encouraging. However, the only way to be certain is to watch October’s numbers, which should help us determine whether or not this is just a temporary upswing, or just a hillock which we have glided over. Until November, we can’t be certain of the figures final application. We must proceed with caution; not with unbridled enthusiasm. Yet, being too cautious could spell more difficulties. It’s hard to know where to set your accelerator when your speedometer isn’t working.