Austin Real Estate Blog

According to the Forbes Business Journal, Austin is tied for first place as the metropolitan area showing the most signs of economic recovery; Washington, D.C. was the other first-place contender.  This is in line with 2009 estimates by Forbes that Austin was positioned for a swift rebound; financial analysts predicted at that time that Austin’s economy would grow by $5 billion before 2011.  Austin’s speedy recovery was attributed to its strong government sector; as the capital of Texas, Austin benefits significantly from stable government employment in the area.

Aggressive moves to attract new companies by both the city of Austin and the state of Texas have also provided additional employment opportunities.  The Austin area has attracted several new employers in recent years including the Hanger Orthopedic Group; Austin is currently in negotiations with Facebook to open an office, as well.  Austin’s historically strong education, healthcare, and green technology sectors have ensured that unemployment rates in the metropolitan area remain lower than the state and national average.

Recent figures indicate that Austin’s employment picture continues to improve.  Job growth in Austin over the past two years approached one percent, the best in the nation; while this growth rate may seem small, it’s worth noting that over the same period the United States as a whole lost jobs and saw unemployment rates skyrocket.  In fact, Austin’s employment picture is expected to improve even more over the next three years, with jobs in the area increasing by approximately eight percent overall.

One major factor in the stability of the Austin economy is the housing market.  While other regions experienced serious declines in property values and increases in foreclosures and unsold homes, homes in Texas retained almost all of their initial value and demand for these homes remained high throughout most of the industry crisis.  Most analysts credit reasonable real estate pricing and lack of overbuilding for Austin’s relative stability and economic performance; because Texas real estate prices were never overinflated due to real estate speculation, the collapse of the housing bubble had little effect on the area.

These recent figures and predictions spell good news for the Austin real estate and business community.  Increased growth and employment is expected to bolster the commercial and residential real estate market and boost new construction, creating still more jobs and growth in the area.  This synergy will maintain Austin’s position as one of the best cities in the nation in which to live and work.

Recent figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest that the worst of the housing industry downturn may be over.  For the first time in three years, fewer homeowners are falling behind on their mortgage payments; this spells good news for mortgage lenders as well as borrowers.  While economists hesitate to say that the worst is over, the reduction in new delinquencies is generally regarded as a positive sign by housing industry experts and real estate agents throughout the country.  Even in Austin, where housing prices remained surprisingly resilient throughout the nationwide woes, these figures offer fresh hope that an economic upturn is on the way.

Current national figures estimate that fifteen percent of all mortgages are at least thirty days delinquent; this includes homes currently in foreclosure as well as seriously delinquent loans.  The worst figures are seen in the subprime mortgage field, where twenty-five percent of loans were thirty days or more delinquent.  The state of Texas has fared somewhat better as a whole than the nation, but fifteen percent of the Texas subprime mortgage market loans are seriously delinquent by sixty or more days, and many of these are currently facing or undergoing foreclosure proceedings.  Only two percent of all mortgage loans in Texas are currently in foreclosure, which represents a markedly better performance than the national rate of approximately five percent.  Texas is one of only seven states currently showing foreclosure rates of two percent of less.

Austin foreclosure rates have remained lower than both the national and state averages, with one percent of loans in foreclosure in December 2009.  These low figures will likely shield Austin from the brunt of the foreclosure crisis expected when banks finally begin unloading already foreclosed homes on the housing market.  Certain hard-hit regions are expected to see plummeting home prices due to the depreciation caused by this expected glut of homes on the market; as many as six million foreclosed homes may be sold by banks over the next three years, according to economic analysts at Barclays Capital.

The strong housing market and stable home values in Austin make it one of the most desirable places to live in the U.S.  Austin’s vibrant computing, healthcare and green tech sectors provide outstanding employment opportunities and have cushioned the Austin metropolitan area against the worst effects of the recession.  With mortgage delinquencies on the decline and the national economy showing signs of recovery, there’s never been a better time to consider moving in or moving up in the Austin community.

New rules proposed by the Community Development Commission could spell big changes for builders seeking variances for new developments in Austin.  The proposal is modeled on a similar law already in effect in Massachusetts and would require that builders who receive special permission to build larger-than-allowed residential buildings must devote a portion of their development to affordable housing for low to moderate income families.  The Community Development Commission is comprised of thirteen political appointees who are tasked with the development and implementation of programs intended to serve low income families and households in the Austin area.

Recent developments have also led to the appointment of a new Downtown Density Task Force, a result of stalemate on the part of the previous task force which could not come to an agreement at a meeting last month.  Many builders have noted that a proposed “pay-to-play” system that would require payments to a community development fund may also constitute a deterrent to new construction in the area during a time of economic uncertainty; most economic experts believe such requirements are unwise given the current housing market downturn.

Some experts have noted that the proposal as it currently stands is in direct conflict with Texas state law, which prohibits requiring builders to include affordable housing in their planned developments.  Supporters of the proposal, however, note that the rules do not force builders to include such housing, but simply withhold the required legal variances from builders who do not make such accommodations a part of their development plan.

The timing of the proposal is unfortunate, given the recent prediction in the 2010 Texas Construction Outlook that Austin construction projects are expected to increase by approximately 30% in the coming year.  Federal stimulus funds and projects are credited with a portion of this growth, and new housing starts are expected to make up much of the rest of the increase.  Many builders feel that adding new layers of expense and paperwork will put a damper on these expected gains and stifle much of the economic benefit Austin could derive from this infusion of cash and projects to the local building industry.  While the public works and utilities projects are not expected to be affected by the proposed rule changes, some new housing developments may be delayed or even canceled if these rules are put into effect at this crucial time.  Given the fragile nature of the housing market recovery, most builders believe that these rules should not be implemented or should be delayed until the housing industry is more robust and the recovery is well underway.

A new mixed-use project is expected to break ground in Austin in 2010. The University Park development is within walking distance of the University of Texas-Austin, and will incorporate townhomes, condominiums, and apartment residences as well as a new movie theater, medical office space, and a luxury Andaz hotel. Construction is expected to commence in the second quarter of 2010. Located on the former site of Concordia University, the development is already pre-leasing commercial space and lead developer Andy Sarwal has indicated he expects to have tenants for 90% of available space before construction is completed on this project.

University Park is centrally located within easy walking or cycling distance of many of the prime attractions of the Austin area, including the State Capitol, the downtown financial and business district, and of course the University of Texas. Onair Development has announced plans for a 120,000 square foot medical office building in University Park in close proximity to St. David’s Medical Center. The building offers significant advantages for physicians who lease office space, including an exclusive tenant equity partnership plan that provides the potential for ownership over time.

Texas Monthly has already taken up residence in University Park; an Aveda Institute salon training facility has also signed a contract and is expected to open for business sometime in mid-2010. Premiere Cinemas will offer six or seven screens in a planned 450,000 square foot mixed-use building, which will incorporate 340 apartments and additional retail outlets as well. Developer Andy Sarwal is encouraging builders in University Park to commit to green standards and LEED certification, making this development even more attractive to tenants in the Austin area.

Austin’s downtown area has fared better in the recent economic downturn than many other cities; this is due in part to the vibrant medical, solar, and green technology sectors in the Austin area. Additionally, Austin’s business-friendly policies have attracted major employers to relocate their headquarters to the area; one recent acquisition for the Austin economy is Hanger, a major manufacturer and supplier of medical prosthetics and durable medical goods.

Austin leads the nation in economic growth due to the diversity of local and statewide businesses, the University of Texas, and overall good business climate.

A recent Brookings Institution report shows that Austin’s economy continued to grow in 2009 while other cities experienced slumps and downturns in their economies. The report finds that Austin grew more from 2008 through 2009 than any other major metropolitan area in the United States. While that growth was a mere two percent increase, it far outstripped the country’s overall metropolitan performance, which decreased by an average of 2.4 percent nationwide.

Austin’s economic growth was spurred mostly by consumer spending and professional and technical services, according to the report. While manufacturing and durable goods decreased, technology-based industries continued to thrive in the area. Austin’s economy has grown approximately 35 percent in the last decade, and the last census showed a 48 percent increase in population in this highly desirable metropolitan region. Austin’s location in Texas has helped it to maintain a healthy economy, but the Brookings Institution report indicates that Austin easily outperformed other major cities in Texas including San Antonio and Dallas.

One major area of growth that has kept Austin’s economy strong is the health care field. Major health care insurers, service providers, and manufacturing concerns have flocked to Austin in recent years, drawn in part by the highly-trained workforce and the business-friendly attitude of Austin’s city leadership. The increasing population of Austin requires large-scale health care service providers, and in recent years more than $1 billion in health care construction and investment has taken place in the Austin area. This provides jobs for area residents; in fact, in 2009 health care employment increased 5.5% overall in the Austin metropolitan area in contrast to a two percent increase nationwide.

Austin’s diverse employment base is also cited as a reason for its economic success. In addition to health care employers, the state government, educational institutions, and many other corporate interests provide jobs for residents. The resilient housing market in Austin is due in part to the stability of these employers, along with consistent population growth creating constant demand for properties in the Austin area. Austin consistently ranks in the top tier of American cities for quality of life and economic opportunity, which attracts many businesses and individuals to the area.

The Brookings Institution report ranked three Texas cities in the top five cities in terms of economic growth. The top five in order are: Austin; Washington, D.C.; McAllen, Texas; Virginia Beach, Virginia, and San Antonio, Texas.

You can view the interactive map on the Brookings Institution website. Below is a snap-shot of the overall economic growth situation.

Brooking Insitution Map of Economic Growth

Offices and other commercial space in Austin are bucking the national trend of falling rents and difficult financing.

A recent Grubb & Ellis Company forecast lists Austin, Texas as the number one city in the nation for commercial real estate investment. Long considered one of the top ten markets in the U.S. for retail, industrial, multi-housing, and office real estate ventures, Austin tops the list for office real estate, beating out cities like Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, Houston, San Diego and Denver. Austin ranked seventh in the nation for retail investment opportunities; Los Angeles held onto the top spot in that category. Austin’s overall strong showing in the commercial market is the result of a number of synergistic factors that have allowed the area to weather recent downturns while remaining relatively unscathed.

Grubb & Ellis credited a strong local economy including government and educational sectors for much of Austin’s strong showing. Federal, state and local government agencies provide over 150,000 jobs in the Austin area, offering a stable employment base that has shielded Austin against the unemployment woes that have plagued other areas in recent years. During 2009, a year when many other major metropolitan areas saw severe job losses and worsening recession, Austin escaped the brunt of the economic downturn with an overall job loss rate of 0.7 percent.

Green technologies are bridging much of the employment gap. Solarbridge and Heliovolt have recently opened offices in the area, and Gemini Solar has begun construction on what will be the largest solar power plant in the country. The plant will be part of AustinEnergy’s overall plan to provide clean electrical energy to the region; located in eastern Travis County, it is expected to generate 30 megawatts of electrical power upon completion in 2010. These new expansions and construction projects will provide additional employment for Austin area residents, and are expected to stimulate growth in the local economy.

Austin’s real estate industry got another boost in a report by Oxford Commercial Inc., which showed that commercial office space leasing stabilized in the fourth quarter of 2009 after three straight quarters of steep declines. Prices for office space have increased in some areas, notably in the downtown area where demand is typically highest. The improvement in leasing figures is believed by most analysts to mark the beginning of an economic rebound in the Austin area. While Austin has experienced fewer difficulties than other areas, it has still felt some of the effects of the nationwide economic woes; this news along with the high ranking by Grubb & Ellis is expected to cement Austin’s position as one of the most desirable commercial markets in the nation.

Leander Commercial Listing by RE/MAX 1

After a year of sluggish sales, Austin saw a large jump in November '09.

A last-minute scramble to take advantage of tax credits and low interest rates is credited with a 58% increase in Austin home sales in November 2009 over the same period last year. The increase in sales is the largest in over a decade, and offers hope for recovery in the beleaguered residential real estate market. While overall home prices in Austin continue to fall, the decrease has begun to level off and seems to be reaching a state of equilibrium, allowing anxious sellers a well-deserved sigh of relief.

Analysts point to the recently extended First-Time Homebuyer Credit and interest rates that have dipped below five percent as the primary causes for this significant increase in sales. Additionally, while median home prices in Austin have not fallen as sharply as some experts had predicted, appreciable reductions in the asking prices of many homes have led to a surge in bargain-hunting by home buyers who might otherwise be priced out of the market. The median price of a single-family residence in Austin has decreased only two percent over the past year, demonstrating the resiliency and stability of the housing market in the metropolitan area.

Most real estate experts are cautiously optimistic about Austin’s residential real estate market going into 2010. Sales are expected to continue to grow more slowly, with no repeat of November’s record-setting figures. The expansion of the federal tax credit for first-time home buyers and continued low interest rates will likely continue to attract buyers to the market, especially in entry-level communities. However, as the economy begins to rebound, interest rates are expected to return to over five percent, and home sales will slow as a result.

As consumer confidence improves, economic conditions in Austin and throughout Texas are expected to continue to rebound, providing employment opportunities and spurring additional sales of new and existing homes. Home prices are expected to increase as well in correlation with the anticipated growth in demand. With ultra-low interest rates, federal incentives, and the current undervaluing of homes on the market, most real estate advisors believe that now is the time to invest in residential real estate, before interest rates and values return to higher levels later in 2010.

Home builders are cautiously optimistic heading into the new year, according to a recent survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The survey indicates that 57% of builders expect 2010 to be an improvement in terms of sales and revenues over 2009 figures. The extension and expansion of the First-Time Homebuyer’s Credit is anticipated to create increased demand for new home construction, while recent changes to the tax code have been advantageous to home builders as well.

The tax changes mainly affect net operating loss carrybacks; these tax mechanisms allow companies to offset profits in one year with losses in another, reducing their overall tax liability and allowing them to receive refunds for taxes paid in past years. These carrybacks usually are only allowed for two years, but the length of time has been sharply increased, allowing many firms to offset current losses against profits going back as far as 2003. This will provide more cash in hand for many financially-strapped builders and offer real help at a time when many home builders need it most.

Builders may get money back from taxes paid!

The survey follows on the heels of a recent prediction from Fitch Ratings that new construction and existing home sales will improve more than previously expected in 2010, due in part to the expansion of the tax credit and efforts by the government to stem the tide of foreclosures in recent years. Incentives and tax credits appear to be having a beneficial effect on the market, but many analysts worry that sales will slump as soon as the incentives are removed or phased out.

Austin builders are expected to benefit from the change in the tax code and the extension of the First-Time Homebuyer’s Credit. Austin’s real estate market has survived the recent housing crisis remarkably well; this is credited to Austin’s thriving economy and overall desirability as a center for culture and a great place to raise a family. While new building projects have slowed in recent years, the demand for new construction is still strong. Ironically, some Austin builders will benefit less from the tax code changes due to the fact they have fewer losses to offset against previous gains, and thus will not qualify for the full level of tax relief.

The number 107 doesn’t seem like a big number when you are talking home sales. But when existing home sales increase; it can be a good sign. In Austin, that 107 totals 6%. That’s a 6% increase in sales from last September, and it does make the economy seem a little more rosy than it was.

The median price increased, too, on a single family home in the Austin area. It is small, but noticeable. A 2% increase can only mean good for the sellers, and since the prices are on the way up, it means that someone has a little more to spend. Total quarterly sales from last year are still down, but hard times for the housing sales may finally be over.

We must remember, however: we are approaching the end date of the $8000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. In order to qualify for that credit, a home buyer must close on the property by November 30, 2009. It can be a slow process, anywhere from 14 days to 2 months. We could see a spurt in the growth of sales until November 30th, and then a drop. Currently congress is reviewing several bills that would extend the tax credit, but to date, none have passed. Keeping an eye on congress will help gauge the next phase in housing development.  There are still a lot of possibilities. If the recession is finally coming to an end, it will be good news for everyone.

Hold on to your hats, Austin. The wild ride may not be over.

You can listent to a former CBS anchor and Austinite in the know… Neil Spelce. From the Neil Spelce Austin Letter….

Volume 31, Number 12

June 19, 2009

Dear Client:

One of the least-discussed aspects of getting a home loan is becoming an impediment to an efficient closing of a home sale in the Austin area between a willing seller and a willing buyer.

This scenario is being replicated daily in the Austin area: A home seller and a home buyer go through the normal negotiations and agree on a price. The home buyer is pre-approved for a loan to cover the purchase. The home is inspected and the seller and buyer once again agree to make the deal. The lender requires a 3^rd-party appraisal. All well and good, so far. But the appraisal process is turning out to be a big hitch in the closing process.

Appraisals in and of themselves are a good thing. But the process is causing real problems for Austin buyers and sellers. It ratcheted up to a new level 5/1/09, when a new national Home Valuation Code was adopted. The Code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers or real estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers for mortgages that will be owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

As a result, many lenders are outsourcing the selection to appraisal-management companies (that take a big slice of the appraisal fee). Some companies put appraisers under pressure to do it faster and do it cheaper. Experienced appraisers are turning down requests to pay them only 50% to 70% of their fees and may also include a requirement the appraisal be completed in as little as 48 hours.

This process has resulted in such anomalies as appraisers being hired from outside Travis County to conduct appraisals in neighborhoods they don’t know very well. The end result: less accuracy and certainty about a property’s true value.

And no one can discuss the appraisal with the appraiser under this new Code.

Anecdotally, you can find examples where some of these appraisals are challenged regularly. (No hard numbers are available) Home values differ from neighborhood to neighborhood, street-by-street. And in many cases no current comparable sales exist. This is where an appraiser who knows the area can more accurately appraise the home’s true value – more so than an appraiser from out-of-area who is charged with doing a “quick” turnaround.

This causes a number of problems, including the possibility a buyer must seek another appraisal. It is slowing sales and as the sales pace picks up, the problems may increase.

Ok. check my post previously where one of my clients got rogered… HVCC rant I hate to say it, but, “I told you so.”

joe